So Builderboy presented a puzzle along these lines on IRC, earlier:
You have a flat surface (for all intents and purposes, 2D)
A lobster is at position x (Builder said frog, Qwerty said turtle)
The lobster moves 1 unit away in a random direction (any angle). It tires out after 3 moves
The question is, what is the chance that Lobztor will be within 1 unit of its starting position?
Here is my approach:
-First draw a circle with center at point x of radius 1. This is the target region as well as all the first move positions
-Choose a point on the circle as the center for a second circle of radius 1.
Note that 1/3 of the circle is in the 1 unit range.
-From here, draw infinitely many circles on this circle
You will notice that this creates a circle of its own with radius of 2 units! Using the powers of geometry, we find the ratio of the area of these two circles and get....1/4. Yay! It is pretty close to magic in my opinion!
EDIT: Just so y'all know, that is 530 circles drawn by Grammer in that screenie at 6MHz.